Dubai real estate set to defy global recession fear

Dubai real estate will continue to thrive and remain on growth path despite global recession fear as the government's time actions to ensure stability in the market have boosted investor confidence, experts say.

Analysts, executives and industry experts said Dubai has cemented its position as a global business, tourism and financial hub and high net worth individuals, millionaires and investors will continue to invest in the property sector.

They said visa reforms, investor-friendly policies and ease of doing business will keep Dubai real estate market resilient and it will swiftly navigate through global recessionary trend in the wake of Russia-Ukraine crisis, rising energy cost and worldwide inflation.

Haider Tuaima, director and head of Real Estate Research at ValuStrat said the Dubai real estate market is likely heading towards stabilisation within the medium term and any negative sentiments could potentially accelerate this trend.

"Strategic decisions put into action by the government since 2019, balancing supply and boosting demand in addition to the 2040 urban plan and enhancing market transparency by openly sharing transactional data, all this helps drive the property market towards more healthy and sustainable growth," Tuaima told Khaleej Times.

The Dubai property market's sales transactions hit nearly Dh160 billion in first eight months of this year despite geopolitical tensions, higher worldwide inflation and oil prices. The market is expected to sustain the upward trend but experts warned of slower growth amid fear of recession in major economies such as the United States, China and Europe.

Latest PMI data indicated that economic activity weakened from the US to Europe and Asia, reinforcing concerns that soaring prices and the war in Ukraine will tip the world into a recession. The data paint a bleak picture for the global economy, with most central banks still focused on taming inflation by raising borrowing costs.

"Inevitably, it will have some impact. However, with Dubai cementing its position as a global business and tourism destination, various visa initiatives along with a range of properties catering to a wide spectrum of buyers, the impact is expected to be softened,"

Robert Thomas, head of Agency at real estate consultancy Core, told Khaleej Times.

Referring to positive catalysts, he said Dubai’s continuing positive handling of Covid, pro-business and tourism environment and ongoing visa reforms have made it an attractive proposition for both residents and international buyers.

"With strong transaction activity along with rising occupancy levels, the supply-demand dynamics is at a relative equilibrium. Furthermore, buyers have the option to choose from a wide array of products across entry points with property-linked visas, making Dubai a favourable investment destination," Thomas said.

Ata Shobeiry, CEO at Zoom Property, said Dubai real estate will emerge stronger despite some challenges on global front.

"After a strong first-half performance and record-breaking sales in July and August, the Dubai property market is in a strong position to face the cahllenges posed by the global recession. The market, I believe, will remain stable in this regard and continue to attract foreign investors and HNWIs," Shobeiry told Khaleej Times.

"The reformed visa rules, investor-friendly policies, and the stability it offers to investors are some major factors that will drive the property market throughout the rest of 2022 and beyond," he said.

Yousuf Fakhruddin, CEO, Fakhruddin Properties, said Dubai has been known to be a resilient market and with better regulations, stronger oversight, and an influx of foreign investment.

"The Dubai real estate market will continue to thrive and will swiftly navigate through any slippery slope. Although, leadership of the country has strongly positioned the UAE in global market which will continue to help create a positive sentiment and trust. But, like any other country, we have to be prepared for any global economic phenomenon, and UAE being an agile country has the capability to come out stronger," Fakhruddin told Khaleej Times.

In a perfectly placed and progressive country like the UAE, he said there are quite a few drivers of growth for the Dubai property sector.

"Fact that the UAE is a global nation ready to welcome people from any country in the world has enabled more people set up new businesses to move here and call it home. The way this country provides for everything from lifestyle to luxury to the residents, has fostered an optimistic and content sentiment amongst expats wanting to live and invest in the country. The recent increase in the number of new business and employment visas in the private sector reinforces the belief system for the real estate sector," he said.

Lotfi Ayoub, founder and CEO of Quatro Properties, Dubai real estate will not be hit by global economic recession.

”I believe Dubai property market will not be effected from the global recession, even though policymakers in Europe took several moves to control the inflation. With over 19 years of experience in GCC, I believe Dubai property market proved its resilience as they have recorded massive transactions this year, even most of the master developers went out of stock from the off-plan properties,” Ayoub told Khaleej Times on Sunday.

However, timely actions taken by the government and the initiatives offered by the development firms supported a quick recovery, and now the Dubai property market is standing firm on its feet, producing record-breaking numbers month after month, he said.

“The emirate recorded massive transactions in luxury segment. I never witnessed a similar growth in luxury properties in past last 10 years. Now, the government has launched new initiatives to ease the residency rules offering golden visa, investors visa and extensions for after expiry residency, among others,” he said.

“We have noticed various positive indicators such as higher number of mortgages, rental deals and increasing demand of properties in the emirate. A lot of new exhibitions are going to be held in Dubai by 2025 and new job seekers will be allowed six-month visa compared to Canada, US and Europe. No one can make the life much easier such as the UAE,” Ayoub elaborated.